Amazon, Apple, and Meta!

A couple of rainy day positions

The market is now going on nine straight green days. Fourteen is the current last 60 years record. If we have more advancer then decliners on Monday (aka we finish green due to broad market participation not *just* the mag7) we’ve met the requirements for the Whaley Breadth Thrust, which is rare. We’re also centimeters away from the 200dma on both tech and S&P 500. All of this is to say as goes Monday, likely will go the week, and the month, possibly even the next few quarters.

A weak, or flat Monday will point to potential exhaustion in this recent rally. Setting the table for instability with the FOMC meeting this week. Whereas a strong Monday that breaks us through the 200DMA likely forces the fund managers who’ve been building cash to start deploying in size. Which in turn might push the vix lower, forcing CTAs and managers to deploy even more.

In the best of times this would be a tricky spot. Add in a layer of global instability, one that could product a headline in either direction at any time, and this week is setting up to be a recipe for pain. Long or short.

If you have a strong bias in either direction you’re braver than I. I commend you. I don’t think this is a time to be a hero, but if you’re directionally right the next few days great riches await.

I mentioned this near the tail of last week’s piece every chart looks beautiful right now (and sorry I didn’t push anything out mid-week, we were babysitting extra kids in my household the last few days and no one in my house was fully prepared for it). Even crap. Below is the chart of the ‘quantum’ computing company rigatoni, a company named after the much more financially successful pasta. If you didn’t know what company this was, and thought instead of quantum crap it was something profitable like Barilla, you’d want to be getting long. With likely an easy money move up to 11.36~ or a move explosive move up to 14.2~.

When stuff like this, which is a hedge fund short target starts to move like this, or as it did in mid March, or as it did in December, that’s the market telling you people are degrossing (selling longs, buying shorts) and it usually isn’t that great of a sign. It why I don’t want every chart to look beautiful, it’s why I want some pain in the market, euphoria is great for that day’s closing account balances, but it often doesn’t hold.