Sunday night thoughts

BTC, RSP, Nvidia, and Robots

Some quick market thoughts as futures just opened up this Sunday evening.

First, on BTC. I expect that given how aggressively Saylor is buying it might make a run up to….what was the December high 110k? That number. If it doesn’t break though its likely heading back to pre-Trump election numbers of 70k. I continue to believe what Saylor is doing is extremely bearish crypto until he washes out. He was almost 30% of all buying last year. If you strip out the pop of buying that happened right when BTC ETFs were approved, he’s close to 60% for the remainder of the year. Every time he buys his basis goes up, which if the price of BTC even stalls out, presents a huge problem for him.

There are so many people levered long MSTR as a BTC proxy that they put out a note saying they’re upping margin requirements. AKA if you want to own MSTR that’s fine, but you can’t do it on margin. When you see stuff like this its because the risk management teams have been screaming their heads off in fear. It could end up being nothing, but be careful if you’re long MSTR (or short as well, because who knows with this thing).

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On the broad market level the spread between RSP and SPY narrowed a bit on Thursday and then they moved up in tandem on Friday, mostly on the backs of Tesla bouncing and Nvidia (more on them below). Thursday was somewhat constructive though. I bring this up because SPY is currently sitting near the top end of its range, with momentum in the MAG7 looking like it wants to stall out. For both SPY to move up it will need help from the 495 or 493 or whatever you want to call it. I expect we’ll continue to see the gap narrow between RSP/SPY as the pre-Trump bullishness reaches a fever pitch in the next few weeks.

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Nvidia will be in the news all day Monday. As they’re heading their CES show first thing in the morning. The expected announcement will be about the new GeForce RTX chip set. 5000 maybe? Also that they’ll talk somewhat about Blackwell AI. Outside of that all bets are off. Some people think they’ll spend a decent amount of time talking about the next big hype wave, Robots. I don’t think they will. Or more specifically I think if they do that’s not great for Nvidia shareholders, because it means they’re already worried about AI spend into H2 and 2026. Possibly nearer term margin pressures as well. The more time they spend on AI and the less on Robots the happier I’d be if I was a Nvidia shareholder. We’ll find out what’s in the box within the next 12 hours.

If the CES becomes a sell the news event for Nvidia, and given the 7% move the last 3 days into tomorrow it might be, the obviously should help the RSP/SPY spread close as well.

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If Nvidia does spend a lot of time on Robots that likely means that ‘theme’ will run. I put that in quotes because the ‘theme’ of robots is either absolutely garbage names or stuff like Honeywell, Rockwell Automation, or Zebra….which are all more focused on factory automation than Robots as the market thinks of them. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have a Robot list handy. Sean McElwee graciously put together the below list in the sub chat on Friday. I thought it was worth sharing in case people missed it.

Given the new wave of pumpers are focused on Robots and Drones, I did find one Drone name I might like at its current valuations, though it does have liquidity issues, but expect a write up on that later this week. Otherwise I’ll talk to you all in the chat tomorrow morning.