The end of tariff risks??

Updates on Google, Tariffs, and some long pitches

Last weekend, I talked about how a lot of near-term risk was to the upside. That after a death cross the market usually rallies in the immediately future. Then Monday happened and we gapped down almost 3% at the lows and I was more than a bit nervous that I was offsides. Bouncing again off of last Thursday’s low, we ripped up almost 9% in the next three sessions after Trump ‘blinked’ (more on this below), only slowing down a little on Friday.

Now, with Google and Tesla earnings in the rearview mirror, and 40% of the S&P 500 market cap reporting this week. Its going to be wild.

Before we talk the week ahead I want to talk about two things, Philip Morris position update and Google’s earnings. As they’re worth highlighting.

Philip Morris has been a huge holding of mine since I first did a YouTube video on it back in July last year when it was less than $100 a share.

The key points if you don’t want to watch a 45 minute almost year old video was, I thought it was trading <13/14 times NTM earnings, and should’ve re-rated up to 20x given its growing again, Zyn growth was being under appreciated by the market, and it was a weaker dollar currency play. All of these themes played out and it now sitting at $170 a share. While I am not worried about the company, and you’re fine to stay long here if you want, I think its time to at least consider hedging against any pullbacks. Its a darling of the market right now and its now at that 20x a share number. If any of its tailwind’s reverse, or even slow, the market will punish it. It’s time to be careful here with Philip Morris.

For Google, the headline numbers of their report weren’t just solid, they were specatular. beating EPS by .8, or 40% higher than expected, beating on the top line as