Trump's next act
Update on Deflation, inflation, and the TCJA 2.0
Six months ago, the week Trump was elected I wrote the below post, saying the consensus was very wrong, he was going to deflationary early in his tenure. That turned out to be true, with both CPI and PPI printing negative numbers in March, even before the tariff impacted the numbers. Now that we’ve seen that thesis play out its time to talk about what the second move of the Trump presidency will look like. As usual, there will be some politics in this post.
What (I think) the first year of Trump looks like
Late Tuesday night it became clear that barring a insane turnaround Trump was going to be the 47th President of the United State of America. The futures market ripped. Led by banks, with some trail following of the megacaps.
One thing to continually note is that no Republican president has finished their first twelve months (measured February 1st to Jan 30th of the following year) with a positive returning S&P 500 (or S&P 90 if you go back far enough) except for Trump’s first term.
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